�Metro Phoenix New Home Sales Up 41% in 2012 �..�
Get the details in our Phoenix Housing Market Letter
After six long years seeking the bottom of the housing recession that began for this region in 2006, we have found it, and it was 2011.
New home sales in the region in 2012 gained 41% over the pace of 2011 as a housing recovery continued after a record period of housing recession had gripped the market.
While there remain serious issues on both the supply and demand sides of the housing equation here in this market, the stats are undeniable.
New home sales based upon actual escrow closings, have seen a strong recovery in the face of declining resale inventories across the region.
While the new home closings that we counted in 2012 might seem low by comparison with the 57,413 we counted in 2005, we will celebrate the end of the Great Recession in housing here in Phoenix.
Continued sales were bolstered by the inventory of �spec� homes in builder inventories, especially in the popular price ranges and locations. Builders report a significant decline in available specs as buyers of resale housing turned their focus to near ready or completed new homes.
Real estate agents also recognized this and helped drive new business to the builder communities.
New home permits in the region also demonstrated exceptional strength and recovery with a 71% increase in activity in 2012 versus 2011, suggesting that builders are moving to be meet the anticipated future demand for new housing in the region.
Annual Report 2012
The Annual Report is a compilation of data about the metro Phoenix housing market.
This 80 page report includes a comprehensive overview of recent and past performance including Historical
combined new and resale activity, Historical metro new home closings vs permits,
Builder and subdivision rankings and detailed demand segmentation by sub market
area and price. Produced exclusively by our firm and trusted for more than a decade.
Now Available! Published each year in February.
Click here for more information »
If you misssed our Forecast event held on January 24th, you can purchase the Power Point presentation and the narative and get up to speed on where the recovery is taking place and where the next expansion will be.
Whether you are a contractor, supplier, developer or builder, this information can be vital to your success in 2013 and beyond.
Click here to get the Phoenix Housing Forecast presentation
As usual, the real story is in the details, which are made available to you in the data that we present each month in The Sales and Permit Report, in our web-based MAGIC-Professional housing data application, and in our Annual Report on Phoenix Housing.
We can tell first hand that the market is heating up based upon the requests to our firm for both our highly accurate housing market data and for our analysis of new communities in the works.
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The Annual
Report 2012
The Annual Report is a compilation of data about the metro Phoenix housing market.
This 80 page report includes a comprehensive overview of recent and past performance including Historical
combined new and resale activity, Historical metro new home closings vs permits,
Builder and subdivision rankings and detailed demand segmentation by sub market
area and price. Produced exclusively by our firm and trusted for more than a decade.
This report will be available in Adobe PDF format on February 11th.
Click here to order now »
Historical Reports
These reports break down historical numbers for New and Resale Housing. Various
reports available including detailed rankings, market share identification and historical
summarization.
Click here for
full details »
We have the land data you need.....click the header above to learn more!
... Continued from above
Our Realtor clients continue to face a declining inventory of resale homes, which even though we believe that number to be artificially low because of homes being withheld by lenders and GSE�s, is still a helpful sign for the new home market. We expect that
the recent rapid decline in announced inventory will stimulate investor activity when banks put more properties on the market and continue the necessary clearing of the excess.
The rental market remains tight in most areas, and rental rates are reported to be rising as leases are renewed. This also will encourage investors still gun shy of an undulating stock market and low bond yields.
In our view, this recovery will be driven by a pretty obvious set of supply, demand, and price parameters and therefore will may not be universal across all segments of the local market for several quarters. This outlook squares with our belief that there are a number of pitfalls
that remain unresolved relative to new housing both nationally and here in Phoenix and that solutions to those market challenges will be necessary before euphoria should rule.
In the next several months the best chance of success for market participants here in metro Phoenix will be to use our analysis tools to identify those neighborhoods where the balance has already shifted from resale to new because the price gap
has either already narrowed or can be reasonably expected to narrow in the near-term. The narrowing price gap reflects a supply demand balance, which generates the opportunity for new homes and gives a green light for the savvy home builder.
Some homebuilders will be tempted by land and lot deals that won�t fit the real hot spot criteria and will need to act quickly to take those that do. It will be a land seller�s market in and around the hot spots and a buyer�s market elsewhere for some time.
Expect these hot spots to come and go relatively rapidly as the attributes develop, they are discovered, a homebuilder or two [or three or four] takes advantage, and they sell out of available lots/land.
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Builders and developers as well as lenders and investors have used our market data
for 30 years as the basis for their due diligence for new projects, for land buys,
and for investments. If you have a need for information about Phoenix new and resale
housing, you are at the right place. If ever there was a time to have the most complete
and authoritative housing market information in your hands � it is right now!
